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The new rating system shows that eating the right amount of vegetables can lower your risk of heart disease by nearly 20%. Westend61/Getty Images
The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.
The big idea
We developed a new method for assessing health risks that our research suggests should make it a lot easier for people to determine which health advice to follow – and which to ignore. The approach, recently published in the journal Nature Medicine, offers a straightforward way for both policymakers and the general public to assess the strength of evidence for a given health risk – like consuming red meat – and the corresponding outcome – ischemic heart disease – using a rating system of one to five stars.
The system we developed is based on several systematic reviews of studies regarding risk factors like smoking and health outcomes such as lung cancer. Well-established relationships between risks and outcomes score between three and five stars, whereas cases in which research evidence is lacking or contradictory garner one to two stars.
In our analysis, only eight of the 180 pairs that we analyzed received the top rating of five stars, indicating very strong evidence of association. The relationship between smoking and lung cancer, as well as the relationship between high systolic blood pressure – the higher of the two numbers in a blood pressure reading – and ischemic heart disease were among those eight five-star pairs.
This rating system enables consumers to easily identify how harmful or protective a behavior may be and how strong the evidence is for each risk-outcome pair. For instance, a consumer seeing a low star rating can use that knowledge to decide whether to shift a health habit or choice.
In addition, we created an online, publicly available visualization tool that displays 50 risk-outcome pairs that we discussed in five recently published papers in Nature Medicine.
While the visualization tool provides a nuanced understanding of risk across the range of blood pressures, the five-star rating signals that the overall evidence is very strong. As a result, this means that clear guidelines can be given on the importance of controlling blood pressure.
Why it matters
Clear messages and evidence-based guidance regarding healthy behaviors are crucial. Yet health guidance is often contradictory and difficult to understand.
Currently, most epidemiological analyses make strong assumptions about relationships between risks and health outcomes, and study results often disagree as to the strength of risk-outcome relationships. It can be confusing for experts and nonexperts alike to parse through conflicting studies of varying strength of results and determine if a lifestyle change is needed.
This is where our method comes in: The star-based rating system can offer decision-makers and consumers alike much-needed context before headline-grabbing health guidance is dispensed and adopted.
For example, the average risk of ischemic heart disease with a blood pressure of 165 mmHG – or millimeters of mercury, the basic unit used for measuring pressure – is 4.5 times the risk of the disease with blood pressure of 100 mmHG; but this is just a single estimate. The relative risk of ischemic heart disease increases by more than four times across the blood pressure range, and there is inherent uncertainty in the estimate based on available data. The rating of five stars incorporates all of this information, and in this case means that relative risk of ischemic heart disease across the entire range of exposures increases by at least 85%.
On the other hand, take the example of red meat consumption. Consuming just 100 grams of red meat per day – as opposed to none – results in a very modest (12%) increase in risk for ischemic heart disease. That’s why it scores a rating of just two stars, consistent with only a weak association.
People should be well aware of their levels of exposure to risks classified with three to five stars, such as systolic blood pressure. By monitoring and keeping one’s blood pressure as low as possible, a person can substantially reduce the risk of developing ischemic heart disease.
What’s next
Our hope is that decision-makers will be able to use our star rating system to create informed policy recommendations that will have the greatest benefits for human health. We also hope the public can use the ratings and the visualization tool tool as a way to more clearly understand the current level of knowledge for different pairs of health risks and outcomes.
Jeffrey Stanaway receives funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Aleksandr Aravkin and Christian Razo do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Many elevators do not have a floor numbered 13 because of common superstitions about the number. Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images
Would you think it weird if I refused to travel on Sundays that fall on the 22nd day of the month?
How about if I lobbied the homeowner association in my high-rise condo to skip the 22nd floor, jumping from the 21st to 23rd?
It’s highly unusual to fear 22 – so, yes, it would be appropriate to see me as a bit odd. But what if, in just my country alone, more than 40 million people shared the same baseless aversion?
That’s how many Americans admit it would bother them to stay on one particular floor in high-rise hotels: the 13th.
According to the Otis Elevator Co., for every building with a floor numbered “13,” six other buildings pretend to not have one, skipping right to 14.
Many Westerners alter their behaviors on Friday the 13th. Of course bad things do sometimes happen on that date, but there’s no evidence they do so disproportionately.
As a sociologist specializing in social psychology and group processes, I’m not so interested in individual fears and obsessions. What fascinates me is when millions of people share the same misconception to the extent that it affects behavior on a broad scale. Such is the power of 13.
Origins of the superstition
The source of 13’s bad reputation – “triskaidekaphobia” – is murky and speculative. The historical explanation may be as simple as its chance juxtaposition with lucky 12. Joe Nickell investigates paranormal claims for the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, a nonprofit that scientifically examines controversial and extraordinary claims. He points out that 12 often represents “completeness”: the number of months in the year, gods on Olympus, signs of the zodiac and apostles of Jesus. Thirteen contrasts with this sense of goodness and perfection.
The number 13 may be associated with some famous but undesirable dinner guests. In Norse mythology, the god Loki was 13th to arrive at a feast in Valhalla, where he tricked another attendee into killing the god Baldur. In Christianity, Judas – the apostle who betrayed Jesus – was the 13th guest at the Last Supper.
‘The Last Supper,’ a 15th-century mural painting in Milan created by Leonardo da Vinci.
Universal History Archive/Getty Images
But the truth is, sociocultural processes can associate bad luck with any number. When the conditions are favorable, a rumor or superstition generates its own social reality, snowballing like an urban legend as it rolls down the hill of time.
In Japan, 9 is unlucky, probably because it sounds similar to the Japanese word for “suffering.” In Italy, it’s 17. In China, 4 sounds like “death” and is more actively avoided in everyday life than 13 is in Western culture – including a willingness to pay higher fees to avoid it in cellphone numbers. And though 666 is considered lucky in China, many Christians around the world associate it with an evil beast described in the biblical Book of Revelation. There is even a word for an intense fear of 666: hexakosioihexekontahexaphobia.
Social and psychological explanations
There are many kinds of specific phobias, and people hold them for a variety of psychological reasons. They can arise from direct negative experiences – fearing bees after being stung by one, for example. Other risk factors for developing a phobia include being very young, having relatives with phobias, having a more sensitive personality and being exposed to others with phobias.
Part of 13’s reputation may be connected to a feeling of unfamiliarity, or “felt sense of anomaly,” as it is called in the psychological literature. In everyday life, 13 is less common than 12. There’s no 13th month, 13-inch ruler, or 13 o’clock. By itself a sense of unfamiliarity won’t cause a phobia, but psychological research shows that we favor what is familiar and disfavor what is not. This makes it easier to associate 13 with negative attributes.
People also may assign dark attributes to 13 for the same reason that many believe in “full moon effects.” Beliefs that the full moon influences mental health, crime rates, accidents and other human calamities have been thoroughly debunked. Still, when people are looking to confirm their beliefs, they are prone to infer connections between unrelated factors. For example, having a car accident during a full moon, or on a Friday the 13th, makes the event seem all the more memorable and significant. Once locked in, such beliefs are very hard to shake.
Then there are the potent effects of social influences. It takes a village – or Twitter – to make fears coalesce around a particular harmless number. The emergence of any superstition in a social group – fear of 13, walking under ladders, not stepping on a crack, knocking on wood, etc. – is not unlike the rise of a “meme.” Although now the term most often refers to widely shared online images, it was first introduced by biologist Richard Dawkins to help describe how an idea, innovation, fashion or other bit of information can diffuse through a population. A meme, in his definition, is similar to a piece of genetic code: It reproduces itself as it is communicated among people, with the potential to mutate into alternative versions of itself.
The 13 meme is a simple bit of information associated with bad luck. It resonates with people for reasons given above, and then spreads throughout the culture. Once acquired, this piece of pseudo-knowledge gives believers a sense of control over the evils associated with it.
False beliefs, true consequences
Groups concerned with public relations seem to feel the need to kowtow to popular superstitions. Perhaps owing to the near-tragic Apollo 13 mission, NASA stopped sequentially numbering space shuttle missions, dubbing the 13th shuttle flight STS-41-G. In Belgium, complaints from superstitious passengers led Brussels Airlines to revamp its logo in 2006. It had been a “b”-like image made of 13 dots. The airline added a 14th. Like many other airlines, its planes’ row numbering skips 13.
Because superstitious beliefs are inherently false, they are as likely to do harm as good – consider health frauds, for example. I’d like to believe influential organizations – perhaps even elevator companies – would do better to warn the public about the dangers of clinging to false beliefs than to continue legitimizing them.
Barry Markovsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Filipino Americans are less likely to seek mental health help than average Americans. LPETTET/E+ via Getty Images
Immigrant families in the U.S. are extremely resilient. Yet some immigrant parents struggle to raise children who can thrive in their new country’s culture. Whether they are dealing with a language barrier or economic challenges, immigrants who bring their kids to the U.S. – or who become parents after arriving – face unique challenges American-born parents don’t.
I see this often in my work as a general pediatrician at Children’s Hospital Los Angeles and an associate professor of clinical pediatrics at the Keck School of Medicine of the University of Southern California. As the daughter of immigrants from the Philippines, I partner with parents, grandparents and key leaders and organizations in my community to evaluate and implement programs that optimize parent-child relationships in families of Filipino descent.
Filipinos are the third-largest Asian American subgroup in the United States.
Filipino American young people face challenges similar to those faced by all kids in the U.S. today, including increasing suicidal behavior, depression and anxiety.
But people of Filipino heritage are less likely than the general population of the U.S. to seek mental health help. Over the past decade, the Filipino community in Southern California has mobilized to improve its young people’s mental health – in the process creating the Filipino Family Health Initiative to meet those needs. As part of its efforts, the initiative offers parenting workshops, in which our team of health and mental health providers teach adults to build stronger parent-child relationships during the kids’ school-age years.
When working with Filipino parents, we encourage them to use positive parenting strategies while also focusing on the strengths of our Filipino upbringing.
After participating in these workshops, parents report less parenting stress and fewer child behavior problems and increased use of praise with their children, compared with parents who have not completed the workshops. In addition, the children of these parents report fewer symptoms of anxiety and depression.
Encourage kids to talk about feelings
Research is clear: When kids are able to talk with their family about their feelings, they are more likely to feel that family members stand by them during difficult times. This is an example of a positive childhood experience that leads to healthier adult relationships and fewer mental health problems in the future.
But as in many cultures, Filipino families don’t often talk about their feelings. This is likely related to shame and stigma. Parents who can do this can promote their kids’ emotional well-being as children, and into their adult lives.
This could start with validating their feelings and acknowledging that their emotions are real. For example, children can benefit from hearing adults say to them, “I can see that you are very upset. That must have been hard for you, and I can see you are making an effort to try again.”
Teach kids about their unique culture
Many immigrant communities are pressured to assimilate into U.S. culture. At times, this can give kids an impression that they should be ashamed, or would be left out, if they embraced their heritage.
For Filipinos, this feeling can be made worse by the Philippines’ history of being colonized, first by the Spanish and then by the U.S. itself. Many Filipino youths in the U.S. are not raised to celebrate their own history and culture, for reasons that include racism, discrimination and colonial mentality. They therefore do not learn about what makes Filipino culture unique and beautiful. Those with less cultural pride can be at risk of having lower self-esteem and poorer mental health.
Parents can foster cultural pride and help young people participate in community traditions and activities that highlight their heritage. For instance, in August 2022, I watched the movie “Easter Sunday” with my children and other family members on the big screen.
It is the first Filipino film from a major Hollywood studio. Produced by Steven Spielberg’s company Amblin Entertainment and distributed by Universal Pictures, “Easter Sunday” stars several Filipino American actors – including comedian Jo Koy and Rodney To, an actor and professor in the USC School of Dramatic Arts – playing their own ethnicity.
Watching this movie felt like home for me and my family, because it reflected our experiences growing up in an immigrant family. In addition, given that October is Filipino American History Month, attending events that celebrate Filipino American contributions to the U.S. and Filipino culture are ways to promote ethnic pride.
Celebrate the strengths of your culture
The Filipino community in the U.S. has a lot to be proud of. One in four of us are essential health care workers, for instance. During the pandemic, workers both in health care and in other fields have mobilized and volunteered countless hours to raise awareness about the disproportionate share of Filipino health care workers who died from COVID-19, and about the need for culturally specific support for the Filipino community during the pandemic and beyond.
That’s just one way many Filipino Americans express the Filipino cultural value of “bayanihan,” meaning helping others without expecting anything in return. Parents can teach this value by pointing out examples when it is done and by modeling it in their own behavior.
Parenting is the hardest job I know. While parents can’t control everything that happens to our children, we can influence and be responsible for our relationships with them and commit to continuous improvement.
We can start by learning positive parenting strategies, such as encouraging our kids to talk about their feelings and helping our kids to learn about and value our culture. By focusing on creating safe havens and positive environments within our homes, we have the power to foster open communication within our families and promote a sense of identity and self-worth within our young people.
Joyce Javier has received funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF), USC Keck School of
Medicine Bridge Funds & COVID-19 Research Fund. This research was also funded by grant K23HD071942 from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute for Child Health and Human Development, grants UL1TR001855 and
UL1TR000130 from the National Center for Advancing Translational Science of the US National Institutes of Health, and a Community Access to Child Health grant from the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health, RWJF, or AAP.
In what’s called ‘benign masochism,’ some people find the feeling of disgust pleasurable. Ocskaymark/iStock via Getty Images.
Halloween is a time to embrace all that is disgusting, from bloody slasher films to haunted houses full of fake guts and gore.
But the attraction to stuff that grosses us out goes beyond this annual holiday.
Flip through TV channels and you’ll come across “adventurous eating” programs, in which hosts and contestants are served all manner of stomach-clenching foods; reality shows that take a deep dive into the work of pimple-popping dermatologists; and gross-out comedies that deploy tasteless humor – think vomiting and urination – to make viewers laugh.
You can see this in other forms of media, as well. In romance novels, for example, you can find portrayals of consensual sibling incest that are designed to titillate the reader. And, most extreme of all, there are internet shock sites that host real footage of death and dismemberment for those who want to seek it out.
It isn’t just a recent media phenomenon, either. Early modern England has a similar culture of disgust, which I’ve written about in a forthcoming book.
Why are so many people drawn to things that should, by all rights, compel them to turn away in horror? Modern science has an answer, and it has everything to do with how the emotion of disgust fundamentally works.
What is disgust?
Disgust is fundamentally an emotion of avoidance: It signals that something might be harmful to your body, and encourages you to avoid it.
Scientists believe that disgust originally concerned food; Charles Darwin noted “how readily this feeling is excited by anything unusual in the appearance, odour, or nature of our food.” According to this theory, it slowly evolved to guard over all sorts of things that might put you in contact with dangerous pathogens, whether via disease, animals, bodily injury, corpses or sex.
What’s more, disgust seems to have evolved further to regulate things that are symbolically harmful: violations of morals, cultural rules and cherished values. This is why some people might say they’re “disgusted” by an act of racism.
Because of these regulatory functions, disgust is often known as the “gatekeeper emotion,” the “exclusionary emotion” or the “body and soul emotion.”
The allure of disgust
How, then, do we account for the fact that disgusting things can sometimes captivate us?
Psychological research suggests that disgusting stimuli both capture and retain your attention more effectively than emotionally neutral stimuli do.
According to media scholars Bridget Rubenking and Annie Lang, this likely happens because, from an evolutionary perspective, it seems that “an attentional bias toward disgust – no matter how aversive – would better equip humans to avoid harmful substances.” So although disgust can be an unpleasant feeling, the emotion has evolved to simultaneously seize people’s attention.
But disgusting things don’t just capture your attention; you can even enjoy them.
Psychologist Nina Strohminger suggests that the pleasurable features of disgust may be an instance of what has been called “benign masochism” – the human tendency to seek out seemingly “negative” experiences for the purposes of enjoying “constrained risks,” such as riding a roller coaster or eating extremely spicy foods.
According to Strohminger, it seems “possible that any negative feeling has the potential to be enjoyable when it is stripped of the belief that what is happening is actually bad, leaving behind physiological arousal that is, in itself, exhilarating or interesting.”
So not only are you predisposed to be captivated by disgusting things, there’s also a psychological mechanism that enables you, in the right circumstances, to enjoy them.
Shakespearean disgust
Celebrating and profiting off this attraction isn’t a product of the digital age. It was even happening in Shakespeare’s time.
The playwright’s notorious tragedy “Titus Andronicus” contains as much gore as today’s slasher movies. According to one estimate, the play stages “14 killings, 9 of them on stage, 6 severed members, 1 rape (or 2 or 3, depending on how you count), 1 live burial, 1 case of insanity, and 1 of cannibalism – an average of 5.2 atrocities per act, or one for every 97 lines.”
When exploring the “problematic appeal of this play’s violence,” literary critic Cynthia Marshall asks, “Why would an audience, any audience, enjoy Titus’s reiteration of violence against the human body?”
‘Titus Andronicus’ is the most gruesome work in Shakespeare’s canon.
Broadway World
The answer, I believe, owes to the alluring nature of disgust that psychologists have documented. In early modern England, in fact, there was a cottage industry of disgust.
Large crowds viewed public executions, and the corpses of criminals were left hanged by chains for the public to gawk at. In open anatomy theaters, curious onlookers could watch doctors perform autopsies. In their shops, apothecaries displayed dismembered human body parts, before eventually mixing them into medicines – a practice scholars today call “medicinal cannibalism.”
And it is not simply that Elizabethans were desensitized, possessed of a different threshold for disgust. Contemporaries expressed their revulsion, even as they found themselves drawn to them. After seeing a charred body hanging in a merchant’s warehouse, the diarist Samuel Pepys noted that “it pleased me much, though an ill sight.”
Then, as now, disgusting things captivate our attention and can even give us enjoyment – and the horrors of a play like “Titus Andronicus” reflect the fact that Elizabethans lived in a culture that encouraged people to gaze upon disgusting objects, even as they felt the urge to turn away. Shakespeare’s audience, I think, embraced the repulsive pleasure, just as modern audiences do when viewing the latest film in the “Halloween” franchise.
The human emotion that shields you from harm equally allows you to take a perverse pleasure in the very things from which you need to be protected.
Bradley J. Irish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Asian American voter turnout increases when an Asian American is on the ballot. fstop123/Collection E+ via Getty Images
Asian Americans voted in record numbers in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020, as well as in the 2018 midterm elections.
They are also the fastest-growing racial group in the country, with the population increasing by 81% between 2000 and 2019.
As political scientists who have written about electoral politics in America and abroad, we argue that the Asian American vote could have important ramifications for the 2022 midterms. That said, this group has historically not voted in lockstep but has shown a diversity of political preferences.
Asian Americans and the Democratic Party
Recent years have seen Asian Americans emerge as a Democratic voting bloc. This affinity for the Democratic Party manifests in public opinion polls, as well. In fact, the recent Asian American Voter Survey found that 56% of Asian Americans have either a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” view of President Joe Biden. By contrast, only 29% of Asian Americans had similar views of former President Donald Trump.
One potential reason for Asian Americans’ preference for the Democratic Party has to do with the demographics of Democratic candidates. Of the 20 Asian Americans currently serving in Congress, all but three are Democrats.
Political scientists have found evidence of Asian Americans’ desire for descriptive representation – a desire to see one’s race, ethnicity, gender or some other identity reflected in their member of Congress. In her recent analysis of state legislative elections, scholar Sara Sadhwani found that Asian American voter turnout increases when an Asian American is on the ballot, and Asian Americans make up a large proportion of the electorate.
On the other hand, Asian Americans may also be largely Democratic because of their policy preferences. A recent poll from Morning Consult, a public opinion outlet, found that only 23% of Asian Americans identified as ideologically conservative.
Not a monolith
Though Asian Americans are characterized by a general lean toward the Democratic Party, it would be misleading to refer to them as if they were a monolithic group. Indeed, despite a shared set of political views among these voters, there are also notable – and important – differences based upon Asian Americans’ particular ethnic identities.
This claim has a long history in political science scholarship. As scholar Wendy Cho argued nearly three decades ago, “the monolithic Asian group is heterogeneous in several respects” when it comes to voting patterns. Accordingly, her work emphasizes that a failure to examine the unique groups that compose the Asian American community can lead to misleading conclusions.
Consequently, breaking up these groups on the basis of ethnicity provides an extremely complex account of the likely voting preferences of Asian Americans.
For example, a recent comprehensive national survey revealed that only 25% of all Asian Americans intend to vote for a Republican as opposed to 54% for a Democrat.
However, broken down along ethnic lines, a more complex set of preferences emerges. As many as 37% of Vietnamese Americans are inclined to vote Republican while only 16% of Indian Americans have similar leanings. These statistics, it can be surmised, would provide a portrait of even greater complexity if they were broken down along sociodemographic lines such as gender and educational attainment.
Though a plurality of Asian Americans identifies with the Democratic Party, there is substantial variation along ethnic lines. When broken down in terms of ethnicity, the highest levels of support for the Democratic Party come from Indians (56%) and Japanese (57%); Vietnamese (23%) and Chinese (42%) Americans register the lowest levels of support for the Democratic Party.
With elections being decided by small swings from one party to the other, Asian American voters could play a key role in determining who obtains political power. The heterogeneous preferences of this group, often falling along ethnic lines, provide ample opportunities for both political parties.
Sumit Ganguly receives funding from the US Department of Defense.
Steven Webster does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder can vary from one student to the next. LumiNola via Getty Images
When leaders at a middle school in New Orleans asked me to help students who were struggling after the city had been struck by Hurricane Katrina, we didn’t see eye to eye.
They wanted me to focus on helping the children overcome test anxiety. Their concern was enabling the children to pass a high-stakes standardized test.
As a developmental psychologist who specializes in how children respond to adverse events that cause stress and anxiety, I – and my colleagues – had something else in mind. We wanted to learn more about the severity of the children’s trauma. We wanted to know how they were coping with any lingering effects of having their lives uprooted by the hurricane. Our objective was to develop an intervention to reduce their overall anxiety, not just help kids do well on a test.
Based on the destruction I saw surrounding the school – which was located in one of the hardest-hit areas of the city – we felt strongly that our cause was the more noble of the two. I reflected on my time in New Orleans in the wake of Hurricane Katrina after I saw how hard Florida had been hit by Hurricane Ian.
Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in late August of 2005.
Parker Deen via Getty Images
For instance, I recalled when I looked out the classroom window in New Orleans seeing the watermarks 8 feet (2½ meters) high on the houses surrounding the school, most of them still boarded up and uninhabited. Only a house here and there had been renovated.
The children were traumatized in many ways: By the high-crime neighborhood they lived in but loved. By the fact that their neighborhood was now partially gone because of damage from the storm. By having to see the hurricane’s devastation every day – even a year after Katrina made landfall in Louisiana on Aug. 29, 2005.
So we asked about screening the kids for post-traumatic stress disorder. School leaders, however, kept stressing the need for the students do well on the standardized tests.
The conflict eventually led me to an important realization: We didn’t have to choose between overcoming text anxiety and PTSD. We could do both. I figured that helping children regulate their emotions while taking a test could also potentially help them regulate their emotions in everyday life.
So began our decade of research into what it takes to rebuild children’s emotional wellness in the years that follow a hurricane.
As Florida officials struggle to get the state’s schools back on track in the wake of Hurricane Ian, we believe our post-Katrina research in New Orleans offers important insights on how to make sure those efforts address the emotional toll the hurricane may have taken on the state’s K-12 students.
A matter of years
One of the most important lessons is that just as it will likely take years to rebuild the infrastructure and homes hit by Hurricane Ian, it could take a similar amount of time to help some children regain a sense of normalcy. My own research – and that of many others – shows that while children are often resilient in the face of disasters, the effects of trauma can be insidious and linger for years to come.
Hurricane Katrina destroyed neighborhoods and schools.
futurewalk via Getty Images
And not all children will be affected the same. Many may have intense and lasting symptoms of anxiety that are stable over time. Others may initially show a few symptoms that get worse or grow as time passes. Some children may show symptoms that evolve over time into other symptoms. Common symptoms include hyperarousal, which is when a kid’s body kicks into high alert, and emotional numbing, which often evolves later and involves difficulty experiencing emotions, usually positive ones.
Our research shows that witnessing disasters and home damage is associated with PTSD symptoms, which may show up as test anxiety and ultimately lead to lower academic achievement.
Because of the variability in how symptoms show up, screening children for distress is warranted. School-based screenings and interventions that help children regulate their emotions may be beneficial for all youths in hard-hit areas. School-based screenings may also be warranted both in the immediate aftermath and over the long term. The screenings can help to further identify youths in need of referral to more intensive services.
In 2010, my colleagues and I suggested children affected by disasters be screened for anxiety related distress. For my colleagues and me, it’s heartening to know that the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, an independent volunteer panel of experts in disease prevention and evidence-based medicine, has recommended an even broader approach: anxiety screenings for all children and adolescents ages 8-18, not just those affected by disasters. It will be particularly critical to follow this policy recommendation in areas affected by Ian and other disasters.
Targeting test anxiety
In our post-Katrina research, we also found that targeting test anxiety through an intervention was associated with reduced PTSD symptoms.
When students experience PTSD, they are more likely to experience test anxiety. And when they experience test anxiety, they are less likely to score well on tests, our research shows. Indeed, scientists and now many policymakers accept that childhood exposure to adverse or traumatic events may have negative effects on the developing brain.
Therefore, if schools want to help students do better, my research suggests they should focus on helping kids learn to regulate their anxiety. One way to do this is to use cognitive behavioral therapy, which is a treatment that helps people identify and change negative thought patterns that affect their behavior and emotions. This involves a number of techniques, such as helping kids directly face their fears and difficulties – in this case, tests – instead of avoiding problems. Prior research has found a link between students with PTSD and “school refusal” behavior – that is, refusing to go to school.
Another technique is called progressive muscle relaxation. This technique involves tensing and then releasing all of the muscles in your body, progressively from your toes to your face. Another technique was deep breathing.
Test-anxious kids who were taught these techniques after Katrina saw their grades improve an average of one letter grade, in this case from mostly C’s to mostly B’s. Our research also suggest these techniques may help prevent long-term difficulties. The same techniques could be useful in Florida as well.
Carl F. Weems has received or currently receives funding from the US National Science Foundation, US National Institutes of Health, US Environmental Protection Agency, US Department of Justice, the State of Iowa Department of Health and Human Services (formerly Department of Human Services), and Youth Shelter Services of Iowa.
From Alaska to Alabama, corporations spend money to shape their local business environments, resources and regulations. Douglas Rissing/ iStock / Getty Images Plus
Political spending by corporations is big business.
As one corporate executive with experience in business-government relations says, “A company that is dependent on government that does not donate to politicians is engaging in corporate malpractice.”
Our research group heard that statement during a series of interviews with industry insiders that we conducted for a study on corporate political strategy and involvement in U.S. state politics.
In the 2020 election cycle, private interests spent US$486 million on campaign contributions to U.S. federal election candidates and over $7 billion to lobby Congress and federal agencies.
The 2022 cycle could be a record period if recent trends are any indication. At the federal level, nine of the 10 most expensive Senate races to date happened during the 2020 election cycle. Notably, Georgia was home to the two most expensive Senate contests of all time in 2020, with candidates and outside groups spending over $800 million on the two races combined.
Data from campaign finance monitor the Center for Responsive Politics shows that those companies most affected by government regulation spend more. The operations of Facebook owner Meta, for example, could be heavily affected by government legislation, whether from laws concerning net neutrality, data privacy or censorship. Meta spent nearly $7.8 million in contributions and $36.4 million in lobbying during the 2020 cycle.
This kind of political spending is also common across state governments. From Alaska to Alabama, corporations spend huge sums of money to influence policymaking because they depend on their local business environments, resources and regulations.
Contributions to gubernatorial and state legislative candidates set records during the 2020 cycle, nearing $1.9 billion. That was up from $1.57 billion during the 2016 cycle and $1.4 billion during the 2012 cycle. Contributions in the 2020 cycle represented a nearly 21% increase from 2016. Both major political parties tend to receive roughly the same level of contributions, though the numbers can vary from year to year.
As the next election approaches, corporate involvement in state politics is vital to understand.
Companies’ attempts to manage state regulations have important effects on their operations directly as well as on state revenues and on the lives of state residents. Corporations can affect the air that you breathe, the water you drink and the taxes you pay.
External forces spark donations
A study we conducted with colleagues Trey Sutton and Bruce Lamont provides insight into the details of when and why corporations contribute to state gubernatorial and legislative candidates.
We examined political contributions by publicly traded companies in elections for governor and the legislature across the 50 U.S. states. The companies we studied (e.g., ExxonMobil and 3M) all operate in environmentally intensive industries – oil and gas, chemical, energy and manufacturing industries. Specifically, the companies in these industries have industrial manufacturing processes that create toxic releases.
We also interviewed industry insiders, political affairs consultants and lobbyists to complement our empirical findings.
ExxonMobil is one of many companies that will likely spend a lot of money on upcoming elections.
John Gress/Getty Images
At the core, companies spend when they are dependent on states, meaning that they have vested interests and operations in a state that are subject to regulation. Regulation creates uncertainty for managers – which they don’t like. Spending helps alleviate the uncertainty by influencing what regulation may be imposed.
Our study went beyond this observation, and had four major insights:
1. Corporations spend when they are worried about negative media coverage prompting what they perceive to be potentially harmful regulations.
As one executive told us, “We spend a lot of time tracking media and local advocacy groups. We track [them] on a daily basis, and I get a report each week.”
Media coverage can drive public perceptions of corporations and influence politicians’ views. In particular, media coverage can amplify misdeeds of companies across states, which worries managers who do not want to see new regulations. In line with this, we found that the companies spent 70% more in states they operated in when national media coverage was more negative rather than less negative.
We found that this effect was exclusive to national media coverage as opposed to local media coverage. Specifically, when local media coverage was more negative, it did not appear to affect political spending.
2. Corporations spend when there are powerful social movement organizations – for example, environmental protection groups – within a state.
“Public relations firms are routinely engaged to monitor activists and the media, because if you don’t watch them, they can create regulatory change. You have to get ahead of it,” an executive said.
Social movement organizations (e.g., Sierra Club and the Rainforest Action Network) help shape public opinion on important issues, pursue institutional change and can prompt legal reform as well, which is a concern to corporations. Our research indicated that in states where they had operations, companies spent 102% more when facing greater opposition from social movement organizations than they would have on average.
3. Corporations spend to gain a seat at the legislative table to communicate their interests.
A political affairs consultant and lobbyist said, “Regulations are a negotiation, there is not a logic, no rule of law, lobbyists come in here…” In essence, legislators rely on policy experts and analysts, among others, when crafting new legislation, but often, solutions can be unclear with competing demands and interests.
Our interviewees shared with us that companies spread their contributions around to those politicians who they believe will listen to their causes and concerns – regardless of party.
They described themselves as wanting their voices heard on particular issues and as important players in the states in which they operate due to the employment and tax base they bring to states.
Boeing, for example, was the largest private employer in Washington state for decades and has been able to secure tax breaks as a result. This is despite documented environmental problems that Boeing’s operations have had in the state.
4. Corporations spend because they see it as consistent with their responsibility to stakeholders.
“Companies mostly want certainty, they want to know the bottom line, and engagement can create opportunities,” said one political affairs consultant.
Corporations have a legal and ethical responsibility to their stakeholders. Company leaders often believe they are upholding their responsibilities to shareholders, employees, communities, customers and suppliers by participating in the political process.
California lawmakers often set more stringent environmental policies than most other states.
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What are the stakes?
There can be huge repercussions for companies in state regulation. As one political affairs consultant told us, “[Regulation] is the pot at the end of the rainbow that could create endless possibilities of profit. It’s the only thing that stands between them and unending profits …”
Ride hailing service Uber, for example, mounted protracted political campaigns aimed at state legislatures and local governments to protect the company’s interests. One result: The ride hailing service has been able to get independent contractor status for their drivers in many states, which means the company does not have to provide unemployment insurance, workers’ compensation and other benefits.
Passage of regulations in large states like California, for example, can have nearly as much impact as a national regulation, making their passage far more significant for companies working nationally.
Since California sets more stringent emissions standards for vehicles than most other states, manufacturers designing cars for the U.S. market must make sure their vehicles can pass these standards. In this way, California and other states following its lead pose a larger regulatory hurdle for auto manufacturers.
Where does this leave us?
Corporate involvement in state politics is an important phenomenon. Corporations provide needed products and services, and also bring jobs and increased investment to states, which can strengthen communities and state economies. Their operations also can bring health and environmental problems for state residents.
As the 2020 Georgia U.S. Senate races suggest, campaign donations for candidates for federal office increasingly come from outside the state. While this pattern does not pervade state elections yet, it raises questions about politicians’ responsiveness to the issues most relevant to their local constituencies.
Given the changed business landscape – and increased operating costs – caused by the coronavirus pandemic, we expect that businesses across the country will continue to be interested in influencing policies ranging from workplace safety to local and state tax breaks. This interest will likely translate into significant spending in the upcoming election, to both major parties and their candidates.
And that political spending will affect everything from your wallet to your health.
This is an updated version of a story originally published on June 29, 2020.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
A Black man and his son leave a polling location in Atlanta after casting a vote in the Georgia primary election on May 24, 2022. Jessica McGowan/Getty Images
In the rash of election reform laws enacted after former President Donald Trump’s false claims of fraud during the 2020 presidential election, few were tougher than SB 202 – the Election Integrity Act – passed in 2021 in Georgia, a state long known for its history of suppressing the Black vote, especially in response to growth in Black political influence.
Media attention focused on SB 202’s shortened runoff periods from nine to four weeks, limits on who can turn in absentee ballots and a partial ban on offering food or water while waiting in line to vote.
But other parts of SB 202 have drawn especially strong charges of racism from Black voters, Democrats and voting rights activists.
Details of the new Georgia law
One part of the law restricts the use of drop boxes, used most extensively by voters of color.
A second involves the State Elections Board, the state agency charged with administering elections in a nonpartisan way. The Board, now composed of four Republicans and one Democrat, is subject to review by the GOP-controlled state legislature and has the authority to take over election boards, including in counties with Democratic majorities and large populations of Black and other voters of color.
Finally, the new law allows any Georgia voter to challenge an unlimited number of other voters in their county.
That provision already led to consequences after the state’s May 24, 2022, primary and foreshadows potential problems after the upcoming midterm elections.
According to the New Georgia Project, a voting rights group that is tracking the impact of the new law, about 64,000 challenges were filed statewide – with about 37,000 of them in the Atlanta area alone – and at least 1,800 mostly Black or Democratic voters’ names already have been removed from the voter rolls.
While the state Board of Registrars upheld the voting rights of the vast majority of challenged voters, voting experts disagree on how voting rules impact voter turnout or erode public trust, especially in a state with a history of discriminatory voting laws that affect people of color.
SB 202’s supporters argue that the overhaul expands voting hours and does not suppress Black voting.
Critics counter that the 98-page bill, similar to others across the country, was a thinly disguised effort to target voters of color because it restricts voting mechanisms used most extensively by Black voters, especially in reaction to the recent growth in political power by Black Georgians.
Georgia’s growing Black political power
For the last 20 years, Georgia has seen a shift in its state politics, largely the result of an influx of Black Americans who have moved back to the South since 2000 and tend to vote Democratic.
Black voters accounted for half of the state’s 1.9 million increase in eligible voters between 2000 and 2019.
With close to 700,000 more voting-age Black Americans moving to the Atlanta area of Fulton County since 2000 – and another 200,000 to nearby Cobb and Gwinnett counties – Black voters in 2018 helped Democrat Stacey Abrams come within about 55,000 votes – 50.2% to 48.8% – of becoming the first Black person and first woman of any race to become Georgia governor.
She lost the race to GOP incumbent Brian Kemp, whose victory withstood several legal challenges filed by Abrams alleging election irregularities.
Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams speaks to supporters on July 28, 2022.
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Georgia Democrats had much more success in 2020. Black turnout helped Joe Biden win the state in the presidential election and saw two Democrats – Raphael Warnock, a Black man, and John Ossoff, a Jewish man – win the state’s two U.S. Senate seats.
Critics suggest that SB 202’s passage following this rise in 2020 Black turnout mirrors a historical pattern of voter disenfranchisement after a rise of Black voter strength. This pattern, which began right after the Civil War, contributed to historian Laughlin McDonald’s conclusion in his “A Voting Rights Odyssey: Black Enfranchisement in Georgia” that “no state was more systematic and thorough in its efforts to deny or limit voting and officeholdings by African-Americans after the Civil War.”
Backlash after the Civil War
In 1868, Black citizens were 44% of the state’s population, and voting-age Black men outnumbered white men in 65 of Georgia’s 137 counties.
Along with the power of growing Black political organizations such as the Loyal Leagues, Reconstruction led to an influx of Black Georgians to elected office in the late 1860s and early 1870s, including the “original 33” Black members of the Georgia General Assembly and members of elected boards of education.
The white-dominated Democratic party responded to these seismic shifts in political power by not only forcibly replacing Black elected school board members with white Georgians selected by all-white grand juries, but also imposing strict vagrancy laws.
These not only restricted the mobility of Black men – and thus their ability to organize – but they also led to convictions of Black men on charges of vagrancy, thus depriving them of the right to vote.
In his book, McDonald describes the reality for Black Georgians trying to vote. At the polls, McDonald writes, Black voters were required to prove that they had paid poll taxes at a time when political violence by white supremacists was a constant.
From 1867 to 1872, McDonald reveals, “at least a quarter of the state’s Black legislators were jailed, threatened, bribed, beaten, or killed.”
The pattern of violence against Black elected officials continued throughout the early 20th century. From 1908 to 1962, no Black Georgian held a seat in the state legislature.
Voting under Jim Crow
Despite those obstacles, Black political power continued to grow.
The movement of Black people to jobs in Georgia’s industrializing cities resulted in the growth of strikes and boycotts. In some cases, as in the Georgia Railroad strike of 1909, white union members resented the employment of Black, nonunion firefighters and staged numerous strikes that ultimately led to federal mediation.
But urban-based industrialization also led to the multiracial, class-based Populist Party in the early 1890s that appealed to Black voters who made up almost half of the state’s population.
The response was Jim Crow, a systematic set of restrictions that historians Suzanne Mettler and Robert Lieberman described as “changing the rules for how elections were run, in ways that would cripple the political opposition once and for all.”
Jim Crow laws included a strengthened poll tax and literacy tests, both of which aimed to block voting by Black voters,, reestablishment of the “white primary” where only whites could vote in the key Democratic Party races, and stricter residency requirements that limited Black people’s ability to organize.
The impact was significant: According to Richard M. Vallely, a political science professor at Swarthmore College, Black voter turnout in Georgia for presidential elections fell from 42% in 1880 to 33% in 1892, 7% in 1900 and 2% in 1912.
White supremacy in the 1940s
A further example of white conservative reaction to expanded Black political activity took place right after World War II. In Georgia’s 1946 gubernatorial election, the candidacy of Democratic incumbent Eugene Talmadge was threatened by a significant rise in Black registrations, from about 20,000 in 1940 to more than 125,000 in 1946.
In addition, the U.S. Supreme Court had outlawed the white primary and the poll tax. More importantly, Black-led organizations, often involving Black veterans, such as the All-Citizen Registration Committee and the Atlanta Negro Voters League, continued to expand throughout the state.
Governor Eugene Talmadge of Georgia speaking during Flag Day ceremonies in 1933.
Bettmann/Getty Images
In response to the increase in Black voter registrations, Talmadge-led white supremacy forces mailed thousands of mimeographed forms to challenge and disqualify Black voters across the state.
Whereas few if any white registrants were challenged in any county, historian Joseph l. Bernd found that Blacks voters were challenged in more than 30 counties, and an estimated 15,000 to 25,000 were purged.
The result was a Talmadge victory despite the fact that his opponent – James Carmichael – won 16,000 more popular votes.
National stakes
Of course, much has changed in Georgia since the days of Talmadge.
But the almost immediate passage of new election laws at a time of growing Black political strength suggests the persistence of a white backlash in Georgia.
In a politically divided state such as Georgia, voter turnout is crucial.
Out of nearly 5 million ballots cast in the 2020 presidential campaign, for instance, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by only 11,779 votes.
The balance of power in the U.S. Senate may rest on the outcome of the race between Warnock and GOP candidate Herschel Walker.
Though the race is still too close to call, one thing is clear: If the record turnout at May’s primaries was any indication, Georgia election officials will be swamped sorting out challenges in a replay of the state’s 1946 governor’s race.
Richard F. Doner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, stands near a damaged residential building in Irpin, Ukraine, on Sept. 8, 2022. Genya Savilov/Pool/AFP via Getty Images
The United States and European countries continue to pledge their support to Ukraine as Russia’s invasion drags on into its ninth month – and have backed their alliance with recurrent deliveries of advanced weaponry and money.
But despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats to Western powers of nuclear strikes, neither the U.S. nor any Western European country, unified under the military coalition NATO, has actually declared it is part of the war.
The U.S. has provided US$17.6 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia first invaded Ukraine in February 2022. But it can be difficult to track foreign aid and to distinguish between money that governments have promised and actually delivered. Some unofficial estimates place U.S. commitments to Ukraine made in 2022 much higher, at $40 billion.
European countries, meanwhile, have collectively donated an estimated 29 billion euros – or more than $28.3 million – in security, financial and humanitarian aid in 2022 – not including additional aid to Ukrainian refugees.
This support has made it possible for Ukraine to fend off a Russian conquest of the country. Without Western aid, equipment and training, Ukraine would likely have already suffered defeat to the Russian incursion.
As a scholar of war and military interventions, I think the situation in Ukraine represents a classic case of a proxy war, in which outsiders give allies money, weapons and other kinds of support – but not at the risk of their own soldiers’ or civilians’ lives.
A better understanding of what proxy wars actually are, and what purpose they serve, provides useful context for the the U.S. and NATO’s current unofficial involvement in the Ukraine war.
Sergiy Kyslytsa, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations, and Linda Thomas-Greenfield, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, speak on Aug. 24, 2022, in New York.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
What proxy wars are
Proxy wars are armed conflicts in which one nation sends resources other than its own military personnel – like weapons, trainers, advisers, surveillance drones, money or even mercenaries – to support another country fighting in a war. This is often done to achieve a political objective, like regime change in another country.
Most proxy wars feature a government trying to determine an outcome in another country’s war. The U.S., for example, supported France with aircraft, vehicles, and weapons in France’s effort to reestablish control of what was then known as Indochina from 1946 to 1954. The Vietnam War started just one year after, in 1955.
Proxy wars allow governments to hurt an adversary without actually declaring war and sending in troops.
Of course, not every government has an equal capacity to financially support other wars. This is why relatively powerful governments with global reach, like the U.S. and the United Kingdom, tend to sponsor proxy wars.
Why proxy wars are taken on
Proxy wars became especially useful for the U.S. and other major powers after World War II, because the 1945 United Nations charter outlawed war except in cases of self-defense.
They also gained prominence because the U.S. and the Soviet Union each possessed nuclear weapons during the Cold War.
That meant any direct clash came with a very large risk of escalating from conventional fighting to a species-ending nuclear war.
Both the U.S. and Soviet Union sponsored proxy wars in places like Angola, where communism and oil were both factors, and El Salvador, where the rise of communism was also a concern for the U.S., during the 1970s and 1980s. This involvement was a way for each government to hurt the other’s interests without significantly risking further military escalation.
Proxy wars may also help establish a foreign government’s legitimacy. If the U.S. directly supports one side in a smaller country’s civil war, it may look like a bully. But if the U.S. defends its engagement by saying it is trying to oppose major foreign adversaries like the Soviet Union or China, then meddling in a third country’s affairs can look necessary and vital.
After his initial February 2022 assault of Ukraine faltered in March, Putin increased his attacks on Western countries, saying that economic sanctions Western countries approved shortly after the invasion were like a declaration of war.
Putin says that Russia is fighting the West and the U.S. – this could help justify Russia’s losses and maintain domestic support for the war.
Other kinds of proxy wars
There are two other main kinds of proxy wars, both intended to accomplish political goals without risking a country’s own people.
The first kind is government support of terrorist groups that attack other governments. Iran’s financial and political support of Hezbollah – a Muslim political party and militant group in Lebanon that seeks Israel’s destruction – is an example.
But while Iran’s use of Hezbollah to attack Israel is by proxy, this wouldn’t exactly count as proxy war. Although terrorism involves lethal armed violence, it doesn’t rise to the level of war, in terms of loss of life and control of territory, for example.
The second form involves supporting an internationally recognized government engaged an international war. This is a rare occurrence, mainly because wars between different countries are more rare than internal conflicts.
Russia’s assault on Ukraine in 2022 is an international war, but NATO cannot easily risk a direct attack on Russia, since Russia has nuclear weapons and is also a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. Russia is also unlikely to withdraw from Ukraine short of defeat on the battlefield, making Ukraine an ideal proxy client – or, at least, ideal for NATO, but very costly in terms of human life for Ukraine and Russia.
If NATO succeeds in helping Ukraine defeat Russia, powerful governments are likely to see proxy wars as a useful tool. But if Russia escalates to attacking NATO countries directly, or uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, proxy wars may be replaced by direct confrontation and, by extension, a third world war. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.
Monica Duffy Toft does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Miami’s streets were bustling and crowded by 1926.
Hurricane Ian barreled ashore with winds of up to 150 mph (240 kph) on Florida’s southwest coast on Sept. 28, 2022.
The storm’s powerful winds and torrential rains reduced entire communities to rubble, killing more than 120 people, including many who drowned in floodwaters resulting from the nearly 18-foot (5.5-meter) storm surge. Bridges connecting Sanibel, Captiva and other barrier islands with the mainland flooded and crumbled, isolating those areas.
Estimates of the economic toll are still preliminary. But as a historian who studies South Florida’s cities and environment, I’m certain that the havoc Ian wreaked will make it among the worst storms on record, along with Harvey and Maria in 2017 and Katrina in 2005.
And based on how Florida has responded to similar devastation in the past, I highly doubt that Ian will do much to slow the pace of the state’s rapid population growth in the near future.
Snowbirds are changing their routes
Over 22 million people currently live in Florida.
That’s about 37% more than the 16 million who resided in the state in 2000. And demographers project that the population will continue increasing, to about 25 million within the next decade.
Florida consistently ranks as the top destination for Americans who relocate to another state.
But many Florida residents spend only the winter months there, returning when the climate warms up back home. In the weeks that followed the storm, analysts were predicting that most of these annual short-term residents – called snowbirds – will not forgo their annual voyage. Instead, many say they’ll simply shift their migratory course and land somewhere else in Florida.
South Florida real estate agents are bracing for stronger-than-usual demand for seasonal rentals in Dade and Broward counties on Florida’s southeast coast, which escaped Ian’s wrath. The extra interest is leading to further spikes in the already overheated real estate markets in places like Miami and Fort Lauderdale.
Today’s new and part-time Floridians are drawn by the same factors that have lured settlers and snowbirds for a century: warm weather and waterfront views, along with lower taxes and fewer regulations than in other parts of the country.
Draining the swampland
Early developers didn’t let inhospitable environments deter them. In the decades after the Civil War, they transformed the peninsular state’s mosquito-ridden, alligator-occupied swampland into hotels, homesteads and farmland.
Florida promoters lured tourists and settlers alike with promises of wealth, land and leisure, whether their sales pitches had to do with citrus and sugar, or sun and sand. Engineers used modern technology to accomplish the large-scale transformation and make way for unprecedented land speculation and development.
Everglades drainage began in earnest in the 1880s when a wealthy Philadelphian named Hamilton Disston created the Okeechobee Land Co. to develop a system of canals that would facilitate “land reclamation.”
Disston purchased over 4 million acres the state had designated as uninhabitable swampland in exchange for US$1 million and his promise to transform it. In 1881, The New York Times called this “the largest purchase of land ever made by a single person in the world.”
His gambit sparked Florida’s first real estate boom.
Disston sent brochures around the country, and to people as far away as Scotland, Denmark, Germany and Italy, that touted Florida’s “inexhaustibly rich lands” and an “equitable and lovely climate where merely to live is a pleasure, a luxury heretofore accessible only to millionaires,” according to Frank B. Sessa’s 1950 history of greater Miami.
Disston and others began selling reclaimed land to railroads, farming interests and land developers. By the early 20th century, inland drainage was giving rise to the sugar, citrus and winter vegetable industries.
The drainage made it possible for the railroad magnates Henry Flagler and Henry Plant to extend their railroads to southeast and southwest Florida, respectively. Train travel greatly expanded opportunities for tourists and new residents by the late 19th century.
This tiny thatched Florida house, photographed in the early 1900s, looks nothing like housing there today.
Hulton Archive/Getty Images
Stormy weather from the start
Attempts to control water on the ground, however, couldn’t curtail weather-related hazards. In 1926, a hurricane slammed into Miami, leaving more than 390 people dead and causing property damage of more than $76 million.
A Western Union telegram from Jessie Wirth Munroe, a survivor, read like a text from someone who had endured Hurricane Ian: “We are safe. Water front completely destroyed.”
Subsequent storms wrought greater devastation.
A 1928 hurricane killed over 2,500 people just south of Lake Okeechobee, most of them Black farmworkers laboring in the new agricultural town of Belle Glade, which was washed away.
In 1935, a Labor Day storm hit the Civilian Conservation Corps camps in the Florida Keys, where workers, many of them World War I veterans, were building a highway that would link mainland Florida to Key West.
“Clinging to beds, using mattresses as overhead cover, the people of the Keys had watched large rocks roll about like pebbles, buildings crumble like houses of cards, water lift up houses and carry them off,” wrote Helen Muir, a journalist who moved to Miami in 1934 and chronicled the city’s growth. “The hurricane moved in like a giant mowing machine and leveled everything.”
No stopping the newcomers
Yet people kept coming, especially after World War II and the advent of widespread air conditioning.
Many of the close to 3 million people who arrived between 1940 and 1960 were veterans who had trained in South Florida during World War II.
In addition, millions more immigrated from the Caribbean and Latin America as transportation become easier and cheaper.
In particular, people fleeing political persecution and economic instability in places such as Cuba, Haiti and, more recently, Venezuela and Central America have settled in Florida.
Housing construction was booming in Miami in 2002, a few years after Andrew destroyed many homes.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Rebuilding and rebuilding
Though each storm seemed to threaten the population boom, the new arrivals tended to stick around. Civic boosters, business leaders and policymakers have invariably promised to rebuild.
After Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 storm, slammed into South Florida in 1992, the state imposed a stronger and more uniform building code. The authorities invested in additional storm preparedness efforts after the spate of hurricanes hit the state in 2004.
Could these patterns change after Hurricane Ian?
Windstorm insurance premiums were climbing beyond the reach of many homeowners before it hit. Analysts predict that premiums will continue to rise, making it harder for residents to afford to remain in Florida and even more challenging for new homebuyers to secure policies.
It remains to be seen if the pro-growth mentality and belief in technological innovation that have shaped Florida’s history can forestall the challenges of climate change and the increasingly severe storms it brings about in the decades ahead.
Robin Faith Bachin receives funding from JPMorgan Chase and Co., Miami-Dade County Department of Public Housing and Community Development.
